Why Polls Got It So Wrong—Again

The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions.                                          

Leonardo da Vinci

In 2016, the so-called intelligentsia would have been well advised to follow the sage advice of the original renaissance man. Sadly, they were too busy drinking the Kool-Aid to notice they were deceiving themselves.

To make the deception complete, the liberal media siloed itself within its own affinity group—ensuring no outside influences or reasoning would breach the walls they erected.

2020 is a redo of 2016.

Four years of constant attacks on Mr. Trump’s personal character had liberals again believing in their own narrative—that Donald Trump wasn’t fit for the Presidency.

Worse, they convinced themselves the rest of the country shared their view.

The problem with this line of thinking, the liberal media again created a self-fulfilling prophecy that didn’t reflect the real world.

Worse, their single mindedness created an environment where they sought to reinforce their intolerant vision of reality, at any cost. So, it should come as little surprise, the liberal media once again turned to the junk science of polls.

And the polls—if it can be imagined were even more out of whack with reality in 2020, than 2016.

How was that possible?

The question is: Why?

They call them shy Trump supporters.

In truth, this group of supporters aren’t particularly shy—they’re merely smart.

Four years of being vilified and demonized by the liberal media for being so gullible in their blind support of the illegitimate Presidency of Donald J. Trump—had a consequence.

This led to the unbelievable reality promoted by the liberal media—that an unenthusiastic candidate of the likes of Joe Biden had built a double digit lead across America against an incumbent.

Such an outcome could have only come from an industry consumed with their own attitudes and animosity.

This is always the problem with polls and surveys they are soft science (junk science). They can be greatly influenced by the views and attitudes of those carrying out the polling. (Read: Why Polls/Surveys Work For Business But Not For The Media, What do Polls Reveal About Society—Very Little)

If polling were truly a science—those conducting the polls would have challenged their own perceptions, especially given how badly they had predicted the 2016 race—but, they didn’t.

Pollsters were so consumed with the reality they wanted to see, they never questioned their data.

They didn’t scan their environment. They never factored in the four years of vitriol directed at Donald Trump. More telling, the pollsters didn’t recognize President Trump’s supporters had shared in the constant attacks directed at Mr. Trump.

This led to a reluctance to participate in the polling process by those willing to vote for President Trump.

Those in the industry should have accounted for this very human attitude; after all, that’s exactly what polling is supposed to uncover—the attitudes of the people.

Will the failure of polling in 2020 be the downfall for the industry?

Frank Lutz, a conservative pollster, predicted the dismal failure of the 2020 polling will spell the end of his industry.

Surely, near-term there will be further erosion in the confidence placed on polling by Conservatives, especially Trump supporters.

However, from a liberal perspective—there likely will be no backlash.

The rationale: Even though polls weren’t close to accurate, it gave liberals the reality they wanted to see.

Furthermore, pollster’s will chalk up their failures in 2020 as being an effect of the Trump phenomena.

That it was Donald Trump’s presence that was causal in the polls getting it wrong—again.

Remove Mr. Trump from the equation—and things will revert back to the pre-Trump era.

After all, polls worked before Trump, they will work afterward.

Of course, this thinking is completely self-serving on the part of the polling industry.

More troubling, it ignores the fact pollsters didn’t account for the environment of the 2020 election.

Worse, pollsters may have interfered in the 2020 election.

Their abysmal performance in 2020 may have suppressed Trump support.

Then again, perhaps that was exactly what pollsters intended.

The 64,000 dollar question: Are polls going away?

Not hardly.

They are too useful a tool for liberals.

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