Remember back to the beginning of the Coronavirus panic—without a vaccine, experts were counting on the summer heat to buy time.
Well, that hope has been dashed.
All we have to do is look south—to the equator—to Latin America, India and Brazil.
Brazil is now one of the hardest hit countries next to the UK and America.
The heat of the equator has done nothing to stop Covid-19.
Yet we haven’t revisited the original assumptions bandied about at the outset of the Coronavirus outbreak; an assumption that led Democratic Governors to shutter their economies—many with the idea of extending those shutdowns into the summer months.
The summer months were our savior—albeit brief, until the return of cooler weather in the fall.
Why did we entertain the notion the summer heat would negatively impact Covid-19?
We see a reduction in the seasonal flu virus every summer.
Why shouldn’t the same hold true for the Coronavirus?
There were two fatal flaws to the summer heat assumption:
The Coronavirus had to behave like the flu, and perhaps more important, the summer heat had to actually be causal in the annual disappearance of the seasonal flu.
Oddly, the public has been dissuaded from making any connection between the seasonal flu and the Coronavirus, largely because by equating the two pathogens, the public could gain a much needed perspective of the Coronavirus which, in turn, would limit the crisis peddlers ability to drive the public’s fear over Covid-19. (Read: The Recipe for Panic)
Worse, the general populace might begin to view Covid-19 as pedestrian, which could lead citizens to rightly question the merits of the “shelter in place” decrees they have been forced to endure by State governments. (Read: The Folly of “Shelter in Place” in a Mobile Society)
Still, from the very beginning, experts have been comparing the Coronavirus to the pedestrian seasonal flu.
We need look no further than the notion the summer heat would do to the Coronavirus what we have long assumed it did to the seasonal flu.
Ironically, Covid-19 may debunk the long held belief in the causality of the disappearance of the seasonal flu with summer.
Could it be that the beginning of summer is merely coincidental to the demise of the seasonal flu?
If that’s the case—what in fact leads to the demise of the seasonal flu?
In truth, one shouldn’t be surprised that the long held assumption of summer heat and the disappearance of the flu—was more myth than truth.
All we have to do is look to the northern portion of the U.S. or better still Canada.
These regions rarely witness extended periods of “so called” summer heat. Yet, they experience the same seasonality of the flu as the rest of the U.S.
How do epidemiologists explain this?
What could explain it?
Herd Immunity is the only explanation that fits.
Has herd immunity always been the reason the flu disappears every year—not summer heat?
Here’s the dilemma for experts who advised “isolationist” policies such as “shelter in place.” If herd immunity was always the best course of action to combat Covid-19—then isolation was decidedly the wrong approach. (Read: What’s wrong with Covid-19 taking its natural course)
But how can herd immunity be causal for the vanishing of the seasonal flu?
According to CDC (Centers for Disease Control), the flu annually infects less than 15% of the U.S. population. (Read: The 15% Rule)
This creates a conflict.
Epidemiologists claim herd immunity can only begin to take effect when over 50% of the population has been infected by a pathogen.
Largely, it’s this 50% or greater infection rate that has led so many to criticize the validity of the Swedish government’s claim they have created herd immunity in their country. It is important to point out: Sweden never pursued isolation policies, leaving its country open throughout the pandemic. (Read: The Swedish Model)
According to Swedish data, the infection rate of Covid-19 in their country has hovered just below double digits—nowhere near the presumed need of, at minimum, 50%.
Could epidemiologists have gotten it wrong?
Could herd immunity exist at much lower rates than previously thought?
Given how wrong experts have gotten the causality of summer heat and the demise of the seasonal flu—one shouldn’t be surprised they’ve gotten herd immunity wrong as well.
But, one thing is for sure—the summer heat will provide no relief from the Coronavirus.