Curve Flattening Never Meant to Stop COVID-19

Curve flattening has become all the rage during the COVID-19 scare.

More troubling, it is being used to promote draconian “stay at home” edicts from deluded politicians seeking to politicize the COVID-19 outbreak.

So what is curve flattening?

What was it meant to do?

More important, what was it never intended to do?

In states across the country, Governors are pointing to the curve flattening philosophy to support the need to implement drastic measures such as “stay at home”  and shuttering of all non-essential businesses policies.

The issue: does the curve flattening paradigm justify the measures being taken?

Sadly, politicians are misusing and abusing the intent of the curve flattening model for their own purposes.

What is curve flattening?

It’s a theoretical statistical model.

The model was produced to demonstrate the simple concept of flattening the peak in hospitalizations due to COVID-19—and that by flattening the peak in cases requiring medical attention governments could avoid overloading their healthcare systems.

In fact, when you look at a depiction of the model, it clearly shows a line labeled “Healthcare Capacity,” with two different peaks: one that rises above the line and another that remains beneath it.

What the theoretical model demonstrates—is by spreading out the rate of cases requiring medical attention over a longer period of time, a country’s healthcare capacity limit will not be exceeded.

Is it practical?

Again, it is a theoretical model based on statistical modeling with numerous assumptions; it is not based on real world conditions. (Read: The Myth of Curve Flattening)

Regardless, it is what the model does not imply that is of most importance.

Sadly, politicians are lying to the public when they point to curve flattening for the justification of their draconian measures, because the model specifically applies to the spreading out of hospitalizationsnot a reduction in overall infections/hospitalizations.

This is key—the statistical model—never addresses a reduction in infections/hospitalizations.

In fact, when one views a depiction of the model—the area under each curve remains the same.

The area represents the number of infections, hence number hospitalizations and impact on the healthcare system.

More troubling, the number of infections were never a focus of the curve flattening model.

Yet, somehow curve flattening is now going to stop COVID-19 dead in its tracks.

It’s all a lie.

This Post Has 4 Comments

Comments are closed.